In the 1995 movie “The American President,” Michael Douglas plays Andrew Shepherd, a U.S. President who proudly hails from Wisconsin.  In the movie, President Shepherd must choose between supporting a gun control bill and a “pollution reduction bill,” which happens to be the pet cause of his environmental lobbyist girlfriend.  (This plot contrivance is only slightly less plausible than Massachusetts voters replacing Ted Kennedy with a Republican best known for showing Cosmopolitan Magazine readers the contents of his underpants.)

Clearly, the idea of a Wisconsin president seems calming to people.  For filmmakers, having a character hail from the Dairy State is intended to show that they’re imbued with a common sense wholesomeness – to the nation, Wisconsin folks are grounded, salt-of-the-earth types.  (My friends from other states still believe that roads in Wisconsin are only passable via tractor.)

Yet Wisconsin has never birthed a leader of the free world.  Republican U.S. Senator “Fighting Bob” LaFollette ran in 1924 as a progressive, garnering 17% of the vote nationwide.  Shorewood native William Rehnquist captained the U.S. Supreme Court as Chief Justice for 19 years (a job that’s arguably as important as the presidency, although less impressive to girls at a bar.)  Favorite son Tommy Thompson proved to be the Usain Bolt of American politics, starting and finishing his 2008 presidential campaign with world-class speed.  (Remind liberals that Dick Cheney actually went to grad school at the UW-Madison, and they’ll flip the table over and run out of the room screaming.)

Yet as 2012 looms, it appears Wisconsin may actually have a viable candidate for the presidency on the horizon.  Fiscal dreamboat Paul Ryan has become a star in Congress, leading many national conservative commentators (including Wisconsin’s own Stephen F. Hayes of The Weekly Standard) to hyperventilate about his nationwide appeal.  Ryan, who was first elected in 1998 as a 28-year old former legislative staffer, is now the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, and one of the leading voices of opposition to the Obama Administration – a position that appears to be gaining popularity with the American public.

All of this has led to rampant speculation about a Paul Ryan run for the presidency in 2012.  There’s plenty of reason to believe that Ryan won’t run.  (Such as, the fact that he routinely says “I am not running for President.”)  But with a number of the Republican presidential hopefuls looking more like future reality show contestants than leaders of the free world, Ryan’s gravitas and amiable personality may just force him into the race.

As with any presidential campaign, there are pros and cons to a Ryan run.  Here’s a list of some of the things that could help and hurt him:

PRO:  He talks to us like we’re adults.

Ryan came by his success the right way: by knowing a lot of stuff.  He doesn’t appear to be the type to weasel his way into House leadership by cutting back room deals.  He has forced his way into meaningful positions simply because he is a pencil-necked tour de force.

As such, he thinks that if only voters saw what he did, they would turn their thinking around.  And if the polls on Congress’ stimulus package and health care reform bills are any indicator, citizens are doing just that. 

When it was clear the Republican brand was ailing, Ryan didn’t abandon his principles – he doubled down on a “Roadmap for America’s Future” plan that reformed many of the federal government’s entitlement programs.  For years, even staunch conservatives have avoided issues like Social Security and Medicare as if they were garage sale underwear.  Yet Ryan figured we were grown up enough to handle the bad news, and had the foresight to propose real solutions.  Thus, when things started to shift the Republicans’ way, he has come out the back end smelling like a rose – with intellectual gravitas earned by sticking to his guns during the worst of times for his party.

CON:  He has a record.

Unfortunately, in presidential races, Congress giveth and Congress taketh away.  Serving in the House or the Senate gives candidates just enough name identification to be plausible, but also gives them a record that can be attacked in virtually any way possible by political opponents.

In Ryan’s case, his opponents – Republicans especially – don’t have to dig too far to find some bad votes in the mix.  Ryan supported both the auto company bailout and the first $700 billion TARP bill, both of which currently have lower favorability ratings than “being trampled by a giraffe.”  Then, when it became clear that some of the TARP money was being used for executive bonuses, Ryan supported a bill to get the money back through increased taxes on those banks – with a less than plausible excuse of why he voted for the bill to begin with.

However, being a Representative also gives someone like Ryan the opportunity to introduce plenty of bills that he can tout in a nationwide campaign.  Undoubtedly, he would have plenty of these bullets in his holster to counteract the head-scratching votes that would surface during a Republican primary.

PRO: His looks. 

Hey, look  - I dislike it as much as you do.  But it’s a reality.  Let's be honest here - Sarah Palin has been good for the conservative movement - but if she looked like Madeline Albright, she could very well be teaching pottery classes at Wasilla High.  Mitt Romney owns a chin that appears to be forged of a titanium alloy.

Several years ago, Ryan was named “Wisconsin’s Sexiest Politician” by a local publication, which is sort of like winning “Most Valuable Bowler” in a league where nobody else has any arms. (I imagine Herb Kohl had to be taken out of the running, as people got sick of giving it to him EVERY YEAR.)  And while I am no expert at telling whether men are attractive (oddly, though, I can tell when they’re ugly), it appears there may be something to this guy’s looks.  

Of course, “looks” expands beyond just his own appearance.  He has a lovely wife and three cute kids, which would play wonderfully on a national stage. (It’s a running joke that every time he announces he’s seeking another term, he also announces his wife is pregnant.  If he runs for president, he’ll announce she’s having triplets.)

CON: He serves in the House of Representatives.

Up until 2008, conventional wisdom set out several rules for being elected president: You had to be a white male over the age of 45, and you had to be either a governor or vice-president.  Before 2008, John Kennedy was the last President to be elected from Congress, back in 1960.

But then 2008 hit, and all bets are off.  Not only did America elect an African-American President, but one who served in the U.S. Senate (albeit only two years, really, before he started running for President.)

Now that conventional wisdom has been obliterated, it seems anything is possible.  How can you rule out a well-liked 42-year old candidate from the House of Representatives? Can anyone say with certainty that the next president isn’t currently a member of the Black Eyed Peas? I can’t.  I won’t.

PRO: He’s media savvy

More than any other Republican member of Congress, Ryan is a media darling.  It appears that he’ll show up anywhere, anytime, to debate anyone on anything.  If you flip on your video camera to film your kid’s baseball game, you should be careful – Ryan might show up to debate how far your son should be choking up on the bat.

And it's not merely that he makes it on to these shows. Whether he's serving as a co-host or a panel member, he excels in articulating the conservative brand. Often times, video clips of Ryan's appearances spread around the right half of the internet with dizzying speed.

Perhaps most refreshing is that Ryan lends a degree of decorum to his appearances. While many shows have devolved into shout-fests, Ryan remains friendly, knowledgeable, and on-topic. As he becomes more of a presence on the national Sunday morning circuit, Americans will certainly buy what he's selling.

CON: Foreign policy.

Without a doubt, Ryan has made his name on the domestic front, warning of debt, deficits, and impending economic collapse.  In fact, he’s been so successful in taking that message to the public, he rarely gets the opportunity to discuss foreign affairs.

As recently as this Sunday, when he was a guest on a national Sunday morning television talk show, he began to wade into foreign affairs – namely, commenting on the prosecution of anti-U.S. terrorists in New York. (Ryan, along with the rest of humanity, is against it.)

Yet if, God forbid, there is another attack on America in the near future, national security could shift to the forefront in 2012.  And if that happens, voters may hit the snooze button on a candidate whose expertise appears to be in the area of domestic spending.

***

Naturally, there are dozens of other things that would factor into whether Paul Ryan could mount a plausible presidential campaign.  For one, he’d have to raise money – it appears he doesn’t have the personal wealth of someone like Mitt Romney, so he’d have to essentially abandon his family to raise the money to make it happen. And who knows what the world will look like in 2012 - we may be fighting the machines by that point.

But without question, Ryan is in the mix.  Throw out a handful of Republicans that can be president, and his name should be on the list.  If voters liked the reptilian Michael Douglas as a Wisconsin president, wait ‘til they get a dose of the real thing.

-February 1, 2010