The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute

They’ve been called everything from uninformed to uninspired to famously fickle. Ideologues on both the left and the right think of them as the wafflers and the Sybils of Wisconsin politics. Dave Obey, the Democratic congressman, suggested last year they are just plain dumb. Or at least disinterested.

“Independents are by their very nature the people who have the least depth and exposure to what the candidates are doing and saying,” Obey opined back in February of 2008. “That’s why they’re independents.”

Actually, we now know, that’s not why at all.

A recent University of Wisconsin-Madison/Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll asked 700 Wisconsinites the extent to which they “follow what’s going on in politics.”
Over 56% of those who describe themselves as either independent or something else other than Republican or Democrat say that they pay attention most of the time (versus 56%, as well, for Republicans and 48% for Democrats.) Factor in those who say they pay attention at least “some of the time” and independents and “others” are more engaged than members of either party.

Mary Gesteland, an independent from Oregon, Wis., calls them “thinkers.”

They’re not uninformed. They’re just unimpressed. They’re also increasingly common.

If you ask Wisconsinites, generally speaking, whether they are Republicans, Democrats, independents or something else, 29% identify themselves as independent and another 10% say something else other than Republican or Democrat. About 2% either don’t know or refuse to answer – meaning over 41% of Wisconsinites are outside the two main parties.

They’re a diverse group, and – by definition – hard to peg. If you had to come up with the most common composite of independents and “others,” however, it would be a well-educated man between the ages of 36 and 64 with a deep streak of skepticism about government and lingering pessimism about the economy. These aren’t people prone to smiley faces and syrup – even on their waffles.

They aren’t quite as critical of the current state government as Republicans. But they aren't Pollyannas. Far from it. Among independents and “others,” 27% expect things to get worse in the state in the next year – a far more pessimistic attitude than is found about either Democrats or Republicans. Asked how much of the time they think they can trust state government to do what is right, over 17% of independents and “others” said “never.” For Democrats, the percentage with the same response was only 2%. Among Republicans, 12%.

Gesteland, like most independents, says she trusts government to do what is right only some of the time. She is, like many, admittedly skeptical.

“How,” she asks, “can you not be?”

Ask a Republican what he or she thinks should be the top priority in Madison and he or she will say improving the state’s economy and protecting jobs (40%), holding the line on taxes and government spending (22%) and then making health care and prescription drugs more affordable (10%).
Democrats emphasize improving the state’s economy and protecting jobs (30%), making health care and prescription drugs more affordable (21%) and improving education (13%). Holding the line on taxes and government spending is not a big priority (8%).

Independents and “others” also emphasize improving the state’s economy and protecting jobs (31%). But they are bigger on holding the line on taxes and government spending (24%) than either Democrats or Republicans. Only 12% say making health care and prescription drugs more affordable is the top priority and only 4% say improving education heads their list.

Gesteland, for her part, gives a nuanced response.
“Instead of just protecting jobs,” she said, “I think the state should do more to bring businesses here.”

Asked why so many independents are concerned about holding the line on taxes and government spending, she says “there is a reason for that. They see the waste that is going on.”

Independents are not Republicans. In fact, they are often much closer to Democrats on social issues like gay marriage and civil unions. There isn’t, moreover, anything close to a steadfast, silent, Republican-like majority in the state. Asked to choose a general category, about 33% of Wisconsinites consider themselves Democrats and only about 26% consider themselves Republicans right now.
When you include leaners, about 47% are either in or close to the Democratic side while only about 42% of Wisconsinites at least lean the Republican way. If Assembly races were held throughout Wisconsin right now, Democrats would likely still prevail in most of them.
Independents and “others” right now are leaning slightly right, however, and huge numbers of them – over 40% -- are, true to form, undecided.

Some advice to politicians trying to win them over: Don’t preach about how government can help solve the problems of, say, global warming. Don’t preach about how government can solve many problems at all. Independents are far more focused on reining in government and taxes than Democrats and even slightly more focused on that than Republicans.

Invite them to breakfast, serve the waffles plain, and include plenty of black coffee. Hey, they must be staying awake somehow. Oh, I’d also make them pay their own way. They seem big on that.

-October 19, 2009

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