Recalibrating the Politics of the Midwest

By James H. Miller

For years we thought the institution with the biggest Big Ten problem was Time Warner. Tuesday night changed all that. In an extraordinary display Barack Obama carried every Big Ten state. All eight of them, even Indiana. The margins in some of the states were truly astounding. These results open up an issue that few in the media have bothered to discuss. How do Republicans come back nationally and especially in the Big Ten? Obama’s victory may change the demographics so that many of the old political formulas become obsolete. In this election, after decades of predictions, young people, Blacks and Latinos came out in large numbers and they overwhelmingly voted for the Democrats. In the Presidential race it was two-to-one. This is not a good sign for aging white Republican politicians. More to the point after eight years of Bush and eight weeks of Sarah Palin, being a governor might not be the best credential to have in the next Presidential election.

Which moves me to one person in particular. His name is Paul Ryan and he lives in Southeast Wisconsin. Depending on his ambition Ryan faces an interesting choice. He can go back to Congress and hope for a miracle where the Republicans regain the majority. That seems very unlikely. Or, he can roll the dice and take a serious shot at becoming a national figure in a party desperate for a new generation of young, bright, articulate spokesmen. How does he do this? Simple. Do not wait for Herb Kohl to decide if he wants to retire, rather take on Russ Feingold. That’s right – Russ Feingold. For some reason political insiders believe that Feingold has become a Wisconsin institution. I happen not to be one of them.

If you go back over Feingold’s three elections his success is not as impressive as you might believe. In his first election he was propelled into an upset victory by circumstances literally beyond his control. He really didn’t have a third election, so the second becomes very interesting. In that race Feingold ran a terrible campaign and was lucky to win against a less than stellar Republican opponent because of an enormous turnout in Dane County due to Tammy Baldwin’s candidacy. Historically off-year elections for a party totally in control in Washington are not good. If Democrats cannot come up with serious solutions very quickly the next election cycle could be as difficult for them as the last two have been for the Republicans. Paul Ryan might have a real shot at beating Feingold, if he has the nerve to do it. If Ryan were to run and beat Feingold he would automatically become one of the most important Republican leaders in the country.

There are some who can make the case – perhaps including Ryan himself – that he can do that from Congress. I doubt it. When Newt Gingrich won Congress in 1994 some of it was certainly his ideas, but a lot of it had to do with luck. It was the second cycle of “Throw the Bums Out” that started with Ross Perot in 1992 when voters defeated an incumbent President. In 1994 they followed that up by replacing the incumbent Congress. Ryan may wait - maybe Ryan gets lucky - but Barack Obama has demonstrated one important lesson for young politicians. If you are any good you can make your own luck. We will see if Ryan’s nerve matches his potential ambition.

-November 6, 2008

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