January 31, 2008
Our Next President May Not Be in the Race Yet
By James H. Miller
Most political pundits thought that after the Super Tuesday primaries next week we would know the identities of the Democratic and Republican nominees for President. That now seems unlikely. One party, or possibly both, may not have a final candidate until this summer’s conventions. It will make for terrific theater and great sport for anyone involved in the political business. Each primary provides new drama and momentum that does not build into an overwhelming mandate for a Presidential nomination.
However, the one complication lost in all the recent talk about primary delegates continues to be Mike Bloomberg, the mayor of New York. It is now very likely that we will know Bloomberg’s intentions long before we know the names of his potential opponents in November. Sometime in March, Bloomberg is going to have to make an historic decision about whether he is going to seek the Presidency as an Independent. Simply put, he is starting to run out of time. He has to get on the ballot across the country, and, while he certainly has the resources to accomplish this, it is not necessarily an easy or a speedy process. Bloomberg would certainly like to know the identity of his opponents before he commits enormous sums to a quest for the Presidency. There is still the possibility that Bloomberg could start his campaign and then shut it off after Labor Day if the Republican and Democratic alternatives create a scenario where Bloomberg can’t get the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President.
But for arguments sake, let’s say that Bloomberg decides he is going to run regardless of whom his opponents might be. As this campaign shifts back and forth there are several points that become evident. First, the economy this year may well be as the dominant issue. True, a terrorist attack could change the dialogue, but not the economy’s importance. This makes Bloomberg an even more interesting candidate. If Mitt Romney can say that his experience in the private sector makes him the person most likely to solve the country’s economic problems, where does that leave Bloomberg? He has run a bigger government more efficiently than Romney and, more to the point, he has made a lot more money in the private sector than Romney would ever dream of. The potential Democrats, or John McCain, do not have this kind of experience. The likelihood of having two sitting Senators as potential opponents would also work to Bloomberg’s favor. While it may be historical trivia, only two sitting U.S. Senators have ever been elected President – John F. Kennedy and Warren Harding. Running against two insiders from Washington might not be the worst thing that could happen to an Independent candidate.
If Bloomberg runs there is little doubt that Wisconsin will be an absolute must win for him. His candidacy will not be based on delivering a message, but rather that he can be elected President. That makes the magic number 270 electoral votes. If he can’t win Wisconsin, he can’t get elected. There are few states that would be more attractive to a Bloomberg candidacy. Last December, 40% of Wisconsin identified themselves as Independents. In 1992 a crippled Ross Perot still got 19% of the Wisconsin vote. From Bloomberg’s perspective we have two sitting Senators who are both Jewish, and without question our most popular politician in the state is Herb Kohl, who if memory serves, has run successful Senatorial races in this state funded by his own wealth and with a slogan “Nobody’s Senator But Yours.”
To win Bloomberg would need huge television buys. While a billion dollar expenditure has been tossed around for a Bloomberg candidacy, let’s be conservative and say that he actually spends $500 million on TV buys between the spring and November of this year. Wisconsin has a little over 3% of the electoral votes he would need to get elected, so let’s give him 3% of $500 million for TV time. That would be a whopping $15 million to be spent on TV commercials in Wisconsin. This would create an enormous impact.
Furthermore, Bloomberg could spend money in the spring and the summer when neither a Republican or Democratic candidate could come anywhere close to matching him. In fact, they would not be able to match him in the fall.
Even if Bloomberg lost in this state, it would still change the political dynamics in Wisconsin for the races below the Presidency. Where would Independent voters go on the ballot after voting for President? What would happen in the races like the contested Congressional race in Green Bay or races for the state Senate and Assembly? Bloomberg’s decision in March may be the most important one in 2008. It will determine whether we will have two or three choices in November. No one completely understands this equation and it may not come into focus until at least Labor Day. This could be the most interesting political year in our lifetime.