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Democrats' Political Calculations Don't Add Up

By Deb Jordahl

It seemed like they had it all figured out.  Governor Doyle and Senate Democrats would force Assembly Republicans to pass a budget with huge increases in taxes and spending by refusing to back down and threatening to blame the GOP for property tax increases when they failed to meet the school funding deadline at the end of September.

On August 27th, State Superintendent Libby Burmaster told lawmakers that failure to reach a budget agreement by September 28th may result in a huge property tax increase. Without a budget Burmaster said state education funding for next year would continue at current levels, and school districts would be forced to raise local property taxes to accommodate any increased spending.  

Not coincidentally, Governor Doyle spent that day and the next holding press conferences with local school Superintendents around they state.  Together they bemoaned the looming deadline and the Assembly Republican budget that increased education spending by only $150 million --- clearly a draconian cut as far as Doyle was concerned. 

Doyle was perfectly willing to storm the state posing for holy pictures, but did nothing else to move the budget process forward, like telling Senate Democrats to get real and hang up their $15 billion health care plan.  So after Doyle left for a ten day trade mission to China and Japan, Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch stepped up and took the lead.

Senate Democrats were confounded when the rookie Speaker broke the budget stalemate with a plan to fund schools and local governments at the level requested by Governor Doyle.  Doyle and top Democrat budget negotiator Russ Decker were out of the country when the news hit, leaving Senate Majority Leader Judy Robson to fend for herself. 

Robson’s initial reaction sounded a bit un-hinged.  “This political stunt is an exercise in futility ridiculed by the Governor and it will be ignored in the Senate. It's orchestrated by a few on the fringe who believe covering their political backsides is more important than actually doing their job and getting a budget done.”  That’s not a very persuasive argument for blowing off a deal that gives you almost everything you want on more than 50% of the budget.

Huebsch just calmly replied, “I’m giving you your budget.” 

Robson tried to compose herself by initiating official” negotiations yet her counter offer would have increased K-12 spending beyond Governor Doyle’s budget and the budget passed by Senate Democrats.  Was Robson just buying time until Doyle or Decker came home and told her what to do?

Clearly Robson was having trouble inside her caucus.  At least two of her members were livid that they’d been forced to support a $15 billion dollar health care plan that had no chance of surviving the budget process.  Four more of her members said they wouldn’t support a budget that didn’t include the politically untenable plan, and the Assembly wasn’t willing to make concessions if Robson dropped the plan.

So Tuesday Huebsch brought his school funding plan to the Assembly floor for a vote and it passed with broad bi-partisan support and a veto proof majority. 

Robson still says she won’t put the school funding plan before the Senate for a vote and key Senate members insist their health care plan is still a vital part of negotiations. 

Meanwhile Governor Doyle’s strategy to run out the clock may have been more successful if he’d given his team a peek at the playbook.  Instead the Governor has hot-dogged his way through the budget process, chiding his fellow Democrats in the Senate and under-estimating their Republican opposition in the Assembly. 

Doyle now says he’s ready to participate in negotiations, but did he wait too long?  How will Robson’s members reconcile the need to jettison the health care plan they spent the summer alternately promoting and defending without getting anything in return?  And now that the Speaker has gained a rock solid majority for his position, will Republicans be willing to accept any of Doyle’s terms?

For Huebsch and his fellow Republicans, the process has become a matter of balancing the realities of governing with the ideal of less government.  It’s been a long tough slog, but Huebsch and his caucus now know where they stand. 

For Doyle and Senate Democrats, the budget process has been shaped almost entirely by political calculations.  How much do we have to demand in order to get what we’re willing to accept, and what happens when we get what we want but aren’t willing to accept it?

Stay tuned.

 


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