Waiting for Mike
By James H. Miller
By March of next year we should know the Republican and Democratic candidates for president. Pretty boring stuff for the media for the following six months. What could turn 2008 into a spectacularly interesting political year is Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York. There are indications that Bloomberg will end up running for president. He is sixty-five; he is termed out of office in New York; he has already become a billionaire in the private sector; and, as most politicians, he has a large ego — why wouldn’t he run?
There have been a number of third party candidates over the last several presidential cycles — the person who had the biggest impact was Ross Perot. The mood of the country today is eerily similar to the political climate in 1991 and 1992. There was an unpopular Bush in the White House; voters were very unhappy with Congress and the direction of the country. Out of nowhere came Ross Perot. Perot was a multi-millionaire with a populist message and a successful business background. People tend to forget that by June of 1992, Perot was over 40% in the polls. Even as the public began to understand that Perot might have a screw loose, he still ended up with 19% of the vote against an incumbent president and a Democratic candidate who, along with Ronald Reagan, was the best retail politician of our time.
In 2007 we have Bloomberg waiting in the wings. His advisors obviously have a vested interest in having him run for president. Bloomberg is much richer than Ross Perot; he will have no problem spending what he needs, even up to a billion dollars, to get himself elected. His political handlers will make enormous consultancy fees, not to mention the potential for jobs after the election. From Bloomberg’s perspective, things would have to break in his favor. If Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani were the nominee for their party, being a sitting mayor of New York City would be a problem. How many New Yorkers can actually be on the ballot before voters notice?
However, Bloomberg has some things going for him besides the money. First of all, ten years ago if you were the mayor of New York, the country simply would not have considered you as a candidate; 9/11 changed all that. Rudy Giuliani’s popularity is based on his performance as mayor of New York City. New Yorkers today think that Bloomberg is more competent than Giuliani. More importantly, Bloomberg has also had experience in the private sector. Making oneself into a billionaire is not the result of luck, but of serious managerial skills. When pollsters today ask for a single word to best describe the Bush presidency, the overwhelming response is incompetency. Bloomberg’s ability to package himself as a competent manager and an independent might resonate throughout the country. No one wants another stumbling, bumbling Bush in the White House. With the Democrats likely to nominate a sitting Senator, no one can be sure about their abilities to actually run our government.
One potential negative for Bloomberg is that he is Jewish. But, is that any more of a problem than being female, black or Mormon in this election cycle? Bloomberg probably can’t win, but if Ross Perot could get 19% of the vote, Bloomberg certainly has the potential to get at least that and maybe a lot more depending on his opponents.
If Bloomberg were to run, we would probably have another president elected with less than 45% of the popular vote, meaning that the next president would not have a mandate to do anything. For better or for worse, a Bloomberg candidacy would at least raise the issue of the current political structure in Washington and why it doesn’t work. It is a message that many American’s may be willing to hear. Finally, there is a nine hundred pound gorilla sitting in the room with all the current candidates for president: when George Bush leaves office he is not taking Iraq and terrorism with him. The next president will have to deal with Iraq as well as at least four to eight years of potential terrorist attacks. A competent manager may be exactly what America is looking for. Don’t discount Bloomberg. He may not be able to win, but don’t be surprised if he runs.